Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is weeks away from one of the most ambitious manufacturing deadlines in automotive history.
CEO Elon Musk has promised volume production of the Cybercab, a fully autonomous two-seater with no steering wheel or pedals, starting in April at Gigafactory Texas.
One catch: he’s building it using an entirely new manufacturing process that has never been proven at scale.
How The Unboxed Process Works
Musk has said the Cybercab will debut Tesla’s patented “Unboxed” manufacturing process, and a factory observer reports the system appears to be operational at Giga Texas.
Instead of building a metal frame and stuffing components inside it through doors and windows, Tesla reportedly builds five major modules separately in parallel, then joins them at the end.
Workers and robots get open access from every angle, which means seats, dashboards, and wiring can all be installed simultaneously across different assembly lines.
Musk claimed this could achieve a 10-second cycle time per vehicle, down from roughly one minute for a Model Y.
The approach would mark the first fundamental departure from sequential assembly line production since the method was pioneered over a century ago.
The Cybercab itself seats just two passengers.
Tesla says the reduced seat count significantly cuts part count and simplifies auto-cleaning between rides.
Waymo’s rideshare data may validate the bet: 91% of robotaxi trips carry two or fewer passengers.
Musk has suggested hailing a couple of them if you have more than two people.
Where The Production Stands
The first production Cybercab rolled off the line in mid-February, weeks ahead of schedule.
Drone footage this week showed 25 units across the Giga Texas grounds, the largest public sighting yet.
But Musk has warned that early output will be “agonizingly slow” before becoming “insanely fast,” and volume production remains four to eight weeks away.
What Prediction Markets Think
On Polymarket, traders give a 34% chance Tesla sells a $30,000 Cybercab to a retail customer by year-end.
A vehicle with no steering wheel needs federal approval to operate on public roads, and Tesla hasn’t secured that yet.
Musk has repeatedly promised the Cybercab will sell for under $30,000.
Tesla’s Austin robotaxi pilot still uses Model Y stand-ins with a safety monitor and has reported 14 crashes since mid-2025.
The Competition Isn’t Waiting
Investor Gary Black argued Waymo can compete with Tesla’s cheaper hardware through better execution.
TSLA traded around $387 on Tuesday, down roughly 20% from December highs.
Q1 earnings on April 28 may provide the next real update on Cybercab ramp rates.
Image: Shutterstock
