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Tesla (TSLA) is back in focus for investors after a recent stretch of mixed share price performance, including a 3.3% gain over the past day and weaker moves over the past month and past 3 months.
See our latest analysis for Tesla.
That 3.3% 1 day share price return sits against a weaker 90 day share price return of 8.1% and a modest 1 year total shareholder return of 6.4%, so recent momentum looks softer than the longer term record.
If Tesla has you reassessing the auto space, it could be a good moment to see how other manufacturers stack up using our auto manufacturers.
Tesla’s share price now sits slightly above the average analyst target and our intrinsic value estimate. This raises a key question for you: is this a chance to buy into future growth, or has the market already priced it in?
Tesla’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $588.18 per share versus the last close of $430.41, so this story prices in a sizeable gap.
Tesla’s business model is shifting from one-time car sales to AI-powered software and service-based recurring revenue models.
This valuation hangs on Tesla turning car buyers into long term software customers, layering in robo-taxis, energy and robotics. Curious how those pieces stack together?
According to BlackGoat, the narrative suggests Tesla is worth more than the current market price, with future cash flows from AI, mobility and energy doing the heavy lifting in that $588.18 fair value estimate.
Result: Fair Value of $588.18 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this story relies heavily on successful robotaxi rollout and Optimus execution. Any regulatory setbacks or chip supply constraints could quickly challenge that thesis.
Find out about the key risks to this Tesla narrative.
Our SWS DCF model takes a different angle and values Tesla at $143.36 per share versus the current $430.41. On this view, the stock screens as overvalued, which contrasts with the 26.8% undervalued narrative. Which story matches your own expectations for Tesla’s future cash flows?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
TSLA Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026
If this view does not line up with your own, or you prefer to work directly with the numbers, you can build a custom Tesla thesis in minutes using Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Tesla research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
Do not stop your research with a single stock. Broaden your watchlist with focused idea lists that surface companies matching the themes you care about most.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include TSLA.
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