Is everyone really turning away from electric cars now?
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The announcement that Europe is rolling back its 2035 ban on the internal combustion engine in passenger cars has been met with howling, gnashing of teeth – and a lot of misinformation. Many are claiming it as proof that the revolution in electric cars has failed and will never reach its goal now. But if you look a little closer, it’s just a small bump in the road that may not even delay the inevitable. Here’s why.
Electric Cars Will Still Dominate EU Sales By 2035
The first thing to note is that this isn’t a complete cancellation of the 2035 ban. The figure for how many sales must be zero emission by that year has dropped from 100% to 90%, which would hardly fit the many sensationalistic headlines we have seen for this story. The remaining 10% emissions gap will be offset using low-carbon steel made in the EU or sustainable fuels.
Some have argued that this is just the first step that breaks the EU’s resolve, and further concessions will be made as European automakers apply greater pressure. BMW has been one of the driving forces behind the relaxation of the ban. When I talked to BMW Chairman Oliver Zipse a few months ago, he discussed how BMW has hedged its bets with a hydrogen version of the X5. But another key focus was about how tailpipe emissions aren’t everything – you need to consider the entire supply chain.
It’s true that tailpipe emissions aren’t the only way cars pollute the atmosphere.
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BMW does have a point, and not just because BEVs have higher carbon intensity during the production phase than ICE due to battery manufacturing. Every car could benefit from using materials that require less energy to make, are recycled, and are composed with future recycling in mind. The real question is whether this is a delaying tactic or real steps are being taken to decarbonize the supply chain. But BMW does appear to be serious about this, and for example has been working with UnternehmerTUM in Munich to create Circular Republic, tasked with proving the viability of the circular economy for automotive manufacturing. One of the outputs has been seat covers that can be recycled at end of life to make new seat covers. For some years, BMW has been holding Responsibility Days to showcase these efforts, which span its global manufacturing footprint.
Can Europe Not Make Affordable Electric Cars?
Another theme (coming more from the pro-EV lobby) is that the ban relaxation has been due to Europe falling behind China in producing affordable EVs, and they are merely trying to delay their inevitable demise as Chinese automakers take over. This has been true in the past, but it’s not so true anymore. The ultra-cheap Dacia Spring may be built in China, but the standout hit of 2025 has been the Renault 5, built in France. Prices start at £21,495 ($29,000) in the UK, mirrored elsewhere in the EU, enabling the Renault 5 to be the second bestselling EV in Europe in October 2025 (according to JATO) after the also keenly priced Skoda Elroq. The Renault 4 will be another affordable electric option in 2026.
Previous Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares was ambivalent and even contradictory about his company’s attitude towards BEVs, but that hasn’t stopped Stellantis brands starting to produce keenly priced electric cars too. Ignoring the Leapmotor T03, which is built in China as part of a joint venture with Stellantis, the Citroen e-C3 starts at £19,995 ($27,000). This hasn’t caught on with the same volume as the Renault 5, but it’s still doing reasonably well as the 19th bestselling BEV in Europe in October 2025.
The electric Renault 5 has been a huge hit, blending attractive retro styling with a keen price and decent EV features.
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Looking at European sales in general, 16 of the top 20 BEVs in October were made in Europe for European brands, and even though Volvo is owned by Chinese Geely, its two cars in the top 20 in October 2025 in the EU (the EX30 and EX40) are now built in Europe too. So that makes 18 out of 20. This wouldn’t mean anything if BEVs in general were doing badly, but October’s overall car sales were up primarily thanks to a 33% increase in electric sales year-on-year, hitting 20.6% of the market.
This does also need to be put alongside the situation in the USA. The reports of the BEV’s demise were bolstered by Ford’s announcement that, after stopping production of the F-150 Lightning electric pickup in October, Ford will be replacing it with an Extended Range EV (EREV) hybrid instead. Volkswagen has also recently announced that it is pausing sales in America of the electric ID. Buzz during 2026.
However, America is an outlier in many respects. US drivers travel around twice as far per year as European ones. They also favor massive trucks and pickups, requiring huge batteries that hit the inefficiency of weight experienced by BEVs. Most of the rest of the world have a greater tendency towards smaller vehicles and shorter distances, for which BEVs are in their element. There’s also the climate change-denying direction of the current US administration and voter, which isn’t mirrored globally and may not be a permanent stance after future elections.
While Ford’s F-150 Lightning hasn’t been the hit expected in the US, the company’s very affordable Puma Gen-e has been selling like hot cakes in the UK, reaching the number three BEV sales spot in September after the Tesla Model Y and 3. In fact, the 2025 model has now sold out entirely, leading Ford to bring the 2026 model forward to November for order availability. The Puma Gen e isn’t quite as affordable as the Renault 5 or Citroen e-C3, costing £26,245 ($35,000) in the UK. But buyers clearly appreciate what it has to offer for the money. Across all drivetrains, the Ford Puma is the UK’s bestselling car.
The big problem for European (and American) automakers is how China has cornered the battery cell market, as well as the minerals used in their production. Chinese cell production counts for 70-85% of world supply, and over 90% of anode and cathode materials come from China. So even when BEVs are built in Europe or the US, the batteries were probably made in China. For this reason, BMW reckons the West has lost this phase of the competition, but sees solid state batteries as a way for European automakers to retake the lead in the electric era.
Electric Cars Are Coming, Ready Or Not
That’s not a factor in the argument about whether BEV sales have stalled and the end of the European ICE ban is just the first nail in their coffin. This is clearly not the case. BMW may have been one of the companies calling for the end to the ban, but its recently launched Neue Klasse iX3 BEV is already seeing favorable first look reviews. The company’s iX1 is a solid seller, and with the iX3’s 500 miles of WLTP range plus a price that isn’t as “BMW premium” as you’d expect, it could already be a contender for 2026’s big BEV hit.
BMW chairman Oliver Zipse presents the launch of the iX3 Neue Klasse in Munich
James Morris
The reality is that there will be 116 million EVs (both BEVs and PHEVs) on world roads by the end of 2026, a 30% increase on 2025, according to Gartner. Sure, that’s a small proportion of the 1.645 billion (7% to be exact) but the trend is clear. Key premium markets like the UK continue to go gangbusters. In November, 26.4% of British car sales were BEVs and another 11.3% were PHEVs. Only the very naïve believed that the road to electrification would be smooth and quick. Only the unrealistic believed that BEVs would be the obvious immediate solution for every driver everywhere in the world. But the trend is clear – electric cars continue to gain market share in most key markets outside the US. Their dominance is inevitable. It just might take a few years longer than expected.
