Travel across Africa is accelerating. Roads are filling up, cities are spreading outward, and more people need dependable ways to get to work, school, and daily obligations. Mobility on the continent is not slowing down – it is speeding up.
By 2050, the number of vehicles in Africa is expected to double, faster than anywhere else in the world. That growth raises a critical question. It is not whether transportation demand will increase, but what kind of transportation will meet it.
Will African countries follow the same fuel-intensive path taken by wealthier regions, or could a different model take hold? New research suggests that an alternative may already be closer than many assume.
Electric vehicles look feasible
For years, many experts believed that gas-powered cars, as well as diesels, would rule the African roads well into the middle of the current century.
They believed that electric cars were far too expensive, too reliant upon the frail infrastructure of the electric power grids, as well as too impractical.
That assumption, however, is beginning to change. The cost of solar energy has dropped dramatically, and battery prices have followed a similar trend.
The shift to affordability
Affordable electric vehicles are also becoming more common in Africa, with two-wheelers leading the way.
This shift is especially relevant on the continent, where many communities already rely on energy solutions that do not require grid connectivity.
Researchers from ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), working with partners, are now seeing how quickly the picture could change.
“Many models have assumed that combustion engine vehicles will continue to dominate in Africa through mid-century,” said lead author Bessie Noll, a senior researcher at ETH Zurich.
“Our findings show that, under certain conditions, e-mobility is feasible sooner than many people think.”
Solar power changes everything
One of the biggest hurdles for electric vehicles in Africa has always been charging. In many regions, the electrical grid is unreliable or simply not there. Instead of treating that as a dealbreaker, the researchers leaned into it.
The team studied 52 African countries and more than 2,000 locations, testing a setup where electric vehicles charge from dedicated solar stations with stationary batteries, completely independent of the grid.
This approach fits the reality on the ground, where solar panels already power homes, clinics, and businesses far from centralized infrastructure.
“We wanted to know what would happen if the charging system were designed specifically for daily demand,” said co-lead author Christian Moretti, a research scientist at PSI.
“Even we were surprised by the results: these systems are significantly cheaper than often assumed, and in many contexts they are even more reliable than the existing electrical grid.”
The numbers tell a clear story. A compact solar setup can support a small car that drives about 30 miles per day.
Charging costs make up only a tiny slice of total vehicle expenses. For electric scooters and motorbikes, the math already works in many places today.
Electric vehicle progress varies widely
Africa is often spoken about as a single market, but the study pushes back on that idea. Conditions vary widely from country to country, especially when it comes to financing.
In places like Botswana or South Africa, where loans are easier to secure and interest rates are lower, electric vehicles could compete with gas-powered ones much sooner. In countries like Guinea, where borrowing costs are high, the shift will take longer.
“Africa is not a single, uniform market,” said Noll. “The framework conditions vary enormously, as does the point at which e-mobility makes sense financially.”
This uneven landscape means there is no one-size-fits-all timeline. Progress will happen in waves, shaped by local economics rather than continent-wide averages.
Electricity beats synthetic fuels
The researchers also looked at another idea often raised as a solution: synthetic fuels. These fuels are made using renewable energy and can run in traditional engines. On paper, they sound appealing.
In practice, they come up short. Even under very optimistic conditions, including cheap solar production in places like Chile, synthetic fuels remain far more expensive than electricity for passenger vehicles.
“Synthetic fuels are urgently needed in other areas, such as aviation and industry,” said Moretti. “They don’t make sense as a priority for passenger transport in Africa.”
Money is the main obstacle
The technology itself is no longer the biggest barrier. Financing is. Electric vehicles usually cost more upfront, even though they are cheaper to operate over time.
In many African countries, loans are expensive because investments are viewed as risky. That reality hits electric vehicles especially hard.
“If financing costs can be reduced, the transition will accelerate dramatically,” said Noll.
Possible solutions include government-backed guarantees, new lending models, and international support.
The shift could also open doors for local assembly plants, maintenance services, and supply-chain jobs.
Policy choices still matter
The researchers were careful about what they included and what they left out. Their analysis focused on technology and basic economics. It did not factor in existing power grids, import taxes, value-added taxes, or government subsidies.
The team also did not model social and political factors, such as rules on used vehicle imports or the rollout of public charging stations.
“We first wanted to understand whether e-mobility is feasible and affordable in principle,” said Noll. “How each country manages their specific transition depends heavily on local conditions and policy decisions.”
Electric vehicles threaten fuel taxes
Another study involving Noll highlights a less obvious challenge. Around the world, fuel taxes bring in about $900 billion each year. That money helps pay for roads and transport systems.
As electric vehicles spread, that revenue shrinks. Low-income countries face the greatest impact. Fuel taxes make up more than nine percent of total government revenue on average, far higher than in wealthy nations.
“The transition to electric vehicles makes sense in terms of climate policy, but poses difficult budgetary questions for many countries,” said Noll.
Taken together, the findings point to a future in which electric vehicles in Africa are not just possible, but practical.
The path forward will depend less on batteries and panels and more on smart policies that link energy, transport, and public finance in realistic ways.
The full study was published in the journal Nature Energy.
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