Synthetic fuels not an option
The researchers also compared electric vehicles to cars powered by synthetic fuels. These vehicles perform significantly worse. Even under very optimistic assumptions, such as production using highly affordable solar power in Chile, the costs remain high.
“Synthetic fuels are urgently needed in other areas, such as aviation and industry,” says Moretti. “They don’t make sense as a priority for passenger transport in Africa.”
Financing the primary issue
According to the researchers, the biggest obstacle to e-mobility is financing, rather than technology. In many African countries, loans are expensive because investments are considered risky. This affects electric vehicles, in particular, since the initial outlay is higher.
“If financing costs can be reduced, the transition will accelerate dramatically,” says Noll. Potential options include government guarantees, new financing models or international support. E-mobility could also create new economic opportunities for Africa, through things like local assembly, new services or jobs along the supply chain.
What the study doesn’t show
The analysis, published in Nature Energy, is deliberately based on a simplified scenario. In their calculations, the researchers did not take into account existing electrical grids, import duties, value added tax or government subsidies. Their aim was to compare the different drive technologies in purely technological and economic terms.
The researchers also did not model in detail infrastructure issues, such as the expansion of public charging stations, or social and political factors, such as import regulations on used vehicles. “We first wanted to understand whether e-mobility is feasible and affordable in principle,” says Noll. “How each country manages their specific transition depends heavily on local conditions and policy decisions.”
How does e-mobility affect public finances?
A second study, which Bessie Noll is involved in and which was published in external page Nature Sustainability , reveals another dimension of the transition. This study examines the implications of the global transition to electric vehicles for public finances worldwide. Today, taxes on petrol and diesel generate around $900 billion per year worldwide. In many countries, this revenue finances road building and more broadly transport infrastructure. With the rise of electric vehicles, this revenue is at risk of disappearing.
Low-income countries are bearing the brunt. Here, fuel taxes account for more than nine percent of total government revenue on average, significantly higher than in wealthier countries. At the same time, these countries often have less institutional capacity to introduce new tax regimes quickly. “The transition to electric vehicles makes sense in terms of climate policy, but poses difficult budgetary questions for a lot of countries,” notes Noll. Early tax reforms and international support could help to avoid financing gaps.
Together, both studies show that e-mobility in Africa is technically and economically feasible, but it will take forward-thinking policies that take a holistic view of energy, transport and financial issues if it is to achieve its full potential.
