I was curious what the history of scams and/or 'questionable product launches' at CES and Finland was and how that spoke about the purely bayesian probability of Donut Labs being another one.
Here is what I found at CES:
- Best of CES 2015 Awards, Disruptive Tech: Energous WattUp (wireless charger thing https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/watt From $12K to $7 stock price?),
- UBeam – they made fantastic claims about ultrasonic wireless power that never panned out and tried to make a splash at CES in 2019. They rebranded as SonicEnergy. SonicEnergy has been reported to have gone out of business in February 2024 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ubeam-to-unveil-ultrasonic-wireless-power-system-at-ces-2019-300770860.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SonicEnergy
- Healbe GoBe (CES 2015),
- “Needleless glucose smartwatch” claims at CES (example: Quantum Operation at CES 2021),
I am sure there are others, that was just a shallow search. Conclusion: Just because it's at CES, doesn't mean it's credible (especially if its biomedical).
Now what about Finland?
Finland has a serious “wellness gadget / miracle remedy” pattern where they have a very sketchy history and there is a long list of problematic companies. But that is a category and is common to many developed nations.
These however are more relevant:
- Nokian Tyres – admitted manipulation of car magazines' tyre tests. https://www.reuters.com/article/finland-court-nokian-tyres/former-nokian-tyres-ceo-and-managers-acquitted-in-market-disclosure-case-idUKKBN2NR0OV/
- Serge Energy "Investors in Finnish pellet business lose hope of recovering money as police investigate" – https://yle.fi/a/74-20115044
- Peikko files legal action against Anstar for greenwashing – https://www.peikko.com/news/peikko-files-legal-action-against-anstar-for-greenwashing-2/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
The point of these examples is that the energy/low carbon sector is awash in sketchy behavior in Finland. We have precedent.
Sigh.
Does all this mean that Donut Labs isn't the real deal?
No.
Here is an interesting link – https://carnewschina.com/2025/11/23/saic-motor-to-begin-mass-delivery-of-solid-state-batteries-in-2027/
SAIC has previously described technical targets for the new solid-state chemistry: a gravimetric energy density above 400 Wh/kg .. The company also provided safety performance data for the chemistry, reporting that cells passed nail-penetration tests and sustained exposure in a 200°C thermal chamber without catching fire or exploding,
So, it sounds feasible. However, that doesn't speak to the 100K life cycle recharging claim. And if it is more of a super capacitor than a battery as some are saying, what other limits it might have and how does it attain such great energy density?
It's also unclear how well this goes to scaled manufacturing, a much bigger question mark than people give credit to. Nano screen printing prototype batteries for $30K motorcycles is a much different problem than doing it for mass consumption.
Here is another interesting link, though some of the connections might be spurious, still effort was applied https://x.com/VoltaWagen/status/2009176167304008147?s=20
In general, my favorite summary is "if you had a choice between betting on red or investing it all in Donut Lab, which would you chose?" I agree, red seems like a better choice at this point. But that could change quickly.
EOTD: If they knew what they were doing, they should have been prepared for the massive doubt and they should have had very strong, on going demos available from the very first minute.
by kaggleqrdl
