Multiple studies and market data indicate that the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has surpassed a “tipping point” in China, parts of Southeast Asia, and Europe. Experts describe this trend as “self-propelling” and difficult to reverse.
On April 25, according to the Financial Times, EVs are expected to account for one-quarter of global new car sales by 2025, with this growth momentum continuing into the first quarter of 2026.
Meanwhile, a study published in the journal Nature Communications highlights that the tipping point for EVs exhibits a “self-reinforcing” characteristic, reducing reliance on policy support.
UBS Group forecasts that by 2035, the combined share of EVs, plug-in hybrids, and range-extended EVs in global new car sales will rise from 23% in 2025 to 58%.
From a technical perspective, UBS analysis of next-generation batteries from CATL, Tesla, and General Motors shows that EVs are approaching “triple parity” with internal combustion engine vehicles in terms of cost, range, and charging time.
Evidence of the tipping point: Global EV sales have expanded exponentially.
A joint study by economists from the University of Exeter and the World Bank, covering sales data from 32 countries between 2016 and 2023, concluded that traditional internal combustion vehicle sales began declining around 2019.
The global stock of EVs and hybrid vehicles doubles approximately every 1.5 years. In the EU, it doubles every 1.3 years, while in China, it doubles annually.
Emerging markets are also witnessing robust growth.
Data shows that in the first two months of this year, EVs accounted for 56% of new car sales in Singapore, 28% in Thailand from January to March, 21% in Indonesia, 18% in Turkey, and 30% in Uruguay. Demand in South Korea and Brazil has also surged significantly.
Although these markets currently account for a small share of global car sales, their future growth potential is widely optimistic due to the rising local purchasing power.
Euan Graham, electricity and data analyst at energy think tank Ember, stated that the electrification of transportation “is an inevitable trend; the only question is the speed, and there will still be bumps along the way.”
European rebound: Oil price shocks and policy support create synergies.
In Europe, the Middle East conflict drove up fuel prices, leading to a 49% year-on-year surge in EU electric vehicle sales in March. Overall first-quarter sales increased by about one-third, accounting for 19% of new car sales in the EU.
In December last year, the monthly sales of battery electric vehicles briefly surpassed those of internal combustion engine vehicles on the European continent.
However, the penetration rates vary significantly across countries.
Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (Acea) shows that electric vehicles account for 98% of new car sales in Norway, while in Spain and Italy, the figures are only 8% to 9%. In the UK, electric vehicle sales hit a record high in March, capturing a 23% market share. With the combined effect of government and automaker subsidies, the average price of new energy vehicles has fallen below that of internal combustion engine cars.
Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) in the UK, expressed reservations, stating:
We are approaching a 25% penetration rate, but this is a market ‘mandated’ by policy. The automotive industry has already invested 10 billion pounds in electric vehicle subsidies over the past two years.
He also warned that the rise in living costs triggered by the Middle East conflict could undermine consumer confidence.
China Market: Policy Rollback Impacts Short-Term Sales, Long-Term Momentum Remains in Focus
The China market has recently experienced notable volatility.
According to data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, following China’s reduction of EV subsidies, sales of new energy vehicles in the country fell by 21% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year.
However, Tim Lenton, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter and an expert on tipping points, pointed out that prior to the pandemic, China had significantly scaled back subsidies, causing a temporary slowdown in the market, which then “quickly restarted.” He expressed confidence that long-term demand in the Chinese market no longer relies on government incentives.
Meanwhile, China’s EV exports continue to gain momentum, with emerging markets becoming a significant source of incremental growth.
Ember noted that Indonesia and Vietnam are also accelerating efforts to establish domestic EV production capacity. Lenton described how models from Chinese brands like BYD are already commonly seen on the streets of some major cities, with “consumers rushing to make purchases.”
Western Automakers’ Strategic Uncertainty as Technology Parity Nears
Policy headwinds and market uncertainty have significantly impacted traditional Western automakers.
Affected by reversals in U.S. climate policy and slower transitions in parts of Europe, several Western automakers have been compelled to realign their strategies, collectively spending over $75 billion to scale back plans for fully electric models and instead increase investment in hybrid vehicles.
David Hilbert, Kia’s European market director, believes it will “take time” for other European countries to catch up with Nordic pioneers and does not consider the tipping point to have arrived yet.
However, Fiona Howarth, founder of the UK-based electric vehicle leasing platform Octopus Electric Vehicles, holds a contrary view, arguing that improvements in range, reductions in price, and lower usage costs are changing consumer behavior in an ‘irreversible manner,’ which represents an ‘early signal of the market crossing a tipping point.’
UBS Group analyst Patrick Hummel concluded after analyzing the next-generation batteries of CATL, Tesla, and General Motors:
Even in markets where policies or regulatory environments are highly unfavorable to electric vehicles, technological innovation ultimately cannot be stopped.
He further stated that he is ‘highly confident’ about the accelerated global adoption of electric vehicles in the medium to long term, with the US market also set to regain momentum.