Tesla could deliver around 1.6 million vehicles in 2026, according to a new forecast from investment bank Morgan Stanley, which also highlights robotaxi expansion as a key driver for the company’s future valuation.
In a note released Sunday, analyst Andrew Percoco raised his Tesla delivery estimate from 1.58 million to 1.6 million vehicles, citing expectations of improved demand supported by new model launches and software advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD), News.Az reports, citing foreign media.
The outlook suggests that demand could strengthen beyond 2026 as Tesla prepares potential new vehicles, including a rumored seven-seater model teased by CEO Elon Musk, alongside continued development of autonomous driving technology.
The report also addressed recent weakness in Tesla’s energy storage business, which posted 8.8 GWh in deployments—well below market expectations of 14.4 GWh. Morgan Stanley described the segment as “inherently lumpy,” adding that long-term demand remains supported by improving economics in utility-scale energy storage and rising interest from data center operators.
However, the central focus of the outlook remains Tesla’s robotaxi strategy. The analyst said the company’s ability to scale an unsupervised robotaxi fleet will be the most important factor influencing its stock performance in 2026.
He noted that investor sentiment is likely to track progress in launching robotaxi operations in Austin, along with planned expansions to several additional cities by mid-year.
Morgan Stanley maintained its price target of $415 per share, implying nearly 15% upside from current levels.
Tesla recently reported Q1 2026 deliveries of just over 358,000 vehicles, missing expectations despite producing more than 408,000 units—indicating a growing inventory surplus. Meanwhile, Chinese competitor BYD continues to expand its global footprint with strong quarterly export volumes.
