Key Points
Robotaxis and humanoid robots have become more important than EVs to the narrative surrounding Tesla stock.
Robotaxis and Optimus robots could be massive performance drivers for Tesla, but betting on that success is high-risk.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is in the midst of an ambitious transformation. While the company isn’t abandoning its core electric vehicle (EV) business, it’s becoming far less central to the stock’s long-term growth outlook.
At the end of January, CEO Elon Musk announced that Tesla was shutting down production of its Model S and Model X vehicles. The company’s Fremont factory is being transitioned to produce Optimus humanoid robots. Musk is betting big that humanoid robots and robotaxis will be massive winners for the company and power strong gains for its stock.
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A Tesla sales center.
Image source: Getty Images.
Robots and robotaxis are Tesla’s future
With rising competition in the EV space and the lapsing of government subsidies to support the industry, Tesla is turning to its Optimus humanoid robots and robotaxis to power its next growth phases.
According to a recent research report from Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner, Tesla’s robotaxi business could be generating $250 billion in annual revenue by the middle of the next decade. Based on his sales forecast, Rosner estimates that Tesla’s robotaxi business could power a $2.75 trillion increase in the company’s market capitalization. For reference, Tesla’s market cap sits at roughly $1.51 trillion as of this writing.
Musk thinks that humanoid robots have the potential to be an even bigger performance driver. A couple of years ago, Musk described Optimus as “literally a $25 trillion market capitalization situation.” Last year, the CEO said that the company’s humanoid robots could generate over $10 trillion in long-term revenue. He also said that 80% of the company’s total value would eventually come from its Optimus bots. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has estimated that total annual revenue from humanoid robot sales could reach more than $5 trillion by 2050.
Of course, betting that these initiatives will be wildly successful also comes with a lot of risk. As of this writing, Tesla is valued at approximately 195.5 times this year’s expected earnings and 14.7 times expected sales. That’s an enormously growth-dependent valuation, particularly in light of the business’s recent performance.
Tesla’s vehicle deliveries fell 8.6% last year, and its overall revenue fell 3% in the period. Meanwhile, net income fell 46%. With the company investing heavily to build out its artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and scale its robotics business, it’s likely that earnings will remain under pressure this year as well.
Explosive long-term growth for the robotics and robotaxi markets actually looks like a relatively safe bet, but Tesla will still need to execute at a high level in order to capitalize on these opportunities. If the company succeeds with these growth bets, its valuation will likely soar. If not, the passage of time could show that the stock was overvalued at current prices.
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Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
