In this week’s newsletter:
At its current rate of progress, the FTSE 100 looks set to surpass its next milestone of 11,000 points in a matter of days. Amid yet more record highs this week driven by strong earnings from global bank HSBC HSBA, medical group Convatec CTEC, aerospace giant Rolls-Royce RR., and London Stock Exchange Group LSEG itself, at the time of writing, the index is up over 9% year to date, positioning it for its best annual gain since last year, when it climbed 21.51%.
If, for instance, it surpasses 11,000 in the first week of March, it will have leapt 1,000 in around 65 days—the fastest 1,000-point leap since its launch in 1984 and around 106 days faster than it took to hit 10,000 points on Jan. 2 this year. That would come despite currency volatility and significant global uncertainty in the form of US tariffs which were subject to a landmark−and contentious—US Supreme Court ruling. It would also come despite domestic political uncertainty in Westminster, where the chancellor will next week attempt to calm restless UK bond markets with a deliberately uncontroversial Spring Statement.
From uncertainty to conviction, US technology investors are reflecting on a whirlwind month of earnings news, and what amounts to a bigger conversation about the accurate price of artificial intelligence progress and the broader vulnerabilities of software-as-a-service stocks. This week, we heard from one portfolio manager who still believes the US is the home of stock market exceptionalism, and that the so-called Magnificent Seven group of stocks is here to stay. He says lots of investors assume the Magnificent Seven should be invested in as one. His take is more granular: they should all be valued and invested in on their own individual merits. In a month where Nvidia NVDA earnings shone once more but failed to impress investors, and Amazon’s AMZN’s prompted spending concerns, be sure to watch this interview here.
And from conviction to comparisons, readers familiar with ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood will enjoy investment specialist Valerio Baselli’s latest conversation with Wood, covering AI, bitcoin, and investment bubbles. Wood says the comparisons with the dotcom bubble stop at the word dot-com. Investors are, she says, “climbing a wall of worry”. Such environments provide “the most durable bull markets” she says, and competition with China will only strengthen US AI prowess. Watch Valerio’s interview with Wood here.
Ollie Smith, Senior Editor
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