Total US new light vehicle sales for February 2026, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,183,000, a 3.8% decrease year-over-year, according to a joint forecast from JD Power and GlobalData.
February 2026 has 24 selling days, the same as February 2025.
The seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR) for total new vehicle sales is expected to be 15.6 million units, down 0.6 million units from February 2025. That compares with a SAAR of 14.8 million units in January (which was further depressed by severe winter weather).
New vehicle retail sales for February 2026 are projected to reach 931,400, a 4.6% decrease from February 2025.
Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at JD Power said that as in January, performance is being shaped by depressed electric vehicle (EV) retail demand—EVs are expected to account for just 6.6% of retail sales, down 1.8 percentage points from a year ago. “Elevated transaction prices continue to weigh on volumes through ongoing affordability pressure,” he said.
Nevertheless, he also said that despite the relatively slow start to the year, acceleration in the sales pace is expected over the balance of 2026, starting with March, which is traditionally a high-volume sales month. “There will be elevated promotional activity from manufacturers,” he predicts.
King added: “Affordability pressure remains significant, with the average monthly finance payment reaching $811, up $32 from a year ago. In response, more consumers are turning to 84-month loan terms, which are expected to account for 12.7% of financed sales this month compared to 7.7% a year ago.
“Easing interest rates and strong used-vehicle values are providing some relief to buyers facing elevated monthly payments. The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans in February is 6.72%, a decrease of 31 basis points from a year ago.”
“Looking ahead, multiple automakers have publicly stated their intent to increase their sales volume in 2026. However, given total new vehicle sales this year are expected to be similar to a year ago, and few, if any automakers are planning for a sales contraction, competitive intensity can be expected to rise in the coming months.”
GlobalData forecasts US light vehicle sales at 16.2 million units in 2026 – slightly down on 2025’s level (16.3 million). Positive factors for the market include low interest rates, higher numbers of lease returns, and tax reductions. However, GlobalData analysts note that affordability will continue to be a constraint on the industry as OEMs grapple with the implications of tariff-related costs.
