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Key Morningstar Metrics for Tesla
Nvidia NVDA announced plans to develop and sell an autonomous driving system for use in personal vehicles and robotaxis as a part of its CES 2026 presentation. Consequently, Tesla TSLA shares were down 5% at the time of writing on Jan. 6.
Why it matters: Tesla, along with Alphabet’s GOOG Waymo, is the current leader in autonomous driving software, including robotaxis. Nvidia’s system would likely be sold to multiple automakers, allowing it to quickly close the gap in personal vehicles and, over the long term, in robotaxis.
Increased competition in autonomous driving software for both personal vehicles and robotaxis could weigh on Tesla’s growth. We think the market is reacting to a lower growth outlook for Tesla following Nvidia’s move.
The bottom line: We are maintaining our $300 per share fair value estimate for narrow-moat Tesla. At current prices, we view Tesla stock as overvalued, trading nearly 45% above our fair value estimate and in 2-star territory.
Our forecast assumes Tesla sees increased adoption among Tesla owners for its autonomous driving software and successfully launches its robotaxi service. However, we assume a roughly 30% ride-hailing market share for Tesla by 2035, with competitors increasing their market share as well.Nvidia’s announcement included a broader entrance into real-world artificial intelligence, where Nvidia aims to develop the software to run robots in manufacturing plants. This would likely compete directly with Tesla’s humanoid robots should both company’s systems become commercial.
Editor’s Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.
The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article.
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