A megacap squeezing in one more rally before year-end? Yes, please.
🚗 A Holiday Glide Higher for Tesla Shares
Tesla 
TSLA is heading into December with solid momentum. Coming into Monday, the stock has risen 20% since January, putting it on track for a third straight annual gain.
Investors will gladly take it. Tesla isn’t exactly a low-volatility cuddle toy — this is a stock that fell 65% in 2022, then turned around and doubled in 2023, then tacked on another 63% in 2024.
Still, the long arc is impressive: since Tesla’s 2010 IPO, the stock has only posted annual declines twice — in 2016 and that infamous crash year of 2022. This year’s 20% gain looks tame by Tesla standards, but context matters: tame is good.
🎅 Santa Rally Season: Will Tesla Join the Party?
This is the time of year when traders start looking for that special year-end swing called Santa rally.
Fortunately, December has been good to Tesla shares. Really good. The stock has risen in more than half of all Decembers since its flotation 15 years ago, with nine monthly gains and six declines over its life as a public company.
Why does the Santa rally happen?
• Some say it’s psychology: investors in a good mood tend to buy.
• Some say it’s portfolio managers smoothing out their year-end reports.
• Others point to tax strategies, retail flows, or just holiday optimism.
No one really knows — which makes it the perfect market myth. But if Santa does show up this year, Tesla benefits. A few cheerful sessions could be enough to lock in another positive annual finish.
Just don’t confuse December with easy money. Historically, it’s just as volatile as every other month — and sometimes worse.
🔥 When December Isn’t So Jolly
Want a reminder that Tesla can rewrite the script in both directions? Look no further than December 2022, when the stock plunged 37% in a single month.
Back then, investors worried CEO Elon Musk’s bold acquisition of Twitter (now X) was consuming far too much of his attention — at the cost of Tesla’s market cap.
The 2025 backdrop is far calmer. Today’s concerns are more traditional Tesla fare:
• How many cars will it deliver?
• What will margins look like?
• Is the growth runway intact?
• What type of robots will Elon talk about on the next call?
December can still swing.
📦 Deliveries: The Real Catalyst on Deck
But traders love a year-cap rally. Even more so when there’s something to bet on.
Expectations for Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries sit between 507,000 and 512,000 vehicles, a number that would help confirm a steady, if not explosive, growth narrative.
More importantly, full-year 2025 deliveries are projected to exceed 2 million units, aligning with Elon Musk’s long-term growth target of 20–30% year-over-year production.
In Tesla’s world, hitting numbers is the difference between “Tesla has momentum” and “Tesla is broken again.”
That means Q4 data — arriving Thursday, January 1 or Friday, January 2, 2026 — will be key for this year’s narrative. The numbers drop early in the morning while everyone is still recovering from celebrations, and suddenly your phone buzzes with either joy or existential dread.
Earnings are a big factor, too. The next report date, as per the earnings calendar, is set for January 28.
🎁 The Takeaway: A Rally Within Reach
Tesla’s 20% gain in 2025 looks solid heading into the final stretch, and seasonality is on its side.
• December tends to be kind.
• Santa rallies tend to lift boats.
• Analysts are optimistic about deliveries.
• The stock has historical resilience.
But this is still Tesla — a stock with a personality, a fanbase, a fierce opposition, and a volatility profile that can make your stomach churn.
Off to you: How do you see Tesla stock performing in December? Share your views in the comments!
