Key points:
Tesla stock sitting on solid gains Traders eye more upside ahead Can deliveries buoy the shares?
Shares of EV maker are up a solid 20% since January. Now traders anticipate a December charge for even more gains.
🚗 Tesla Climbs Into Holiday Mode
Tesla stock 
TSLA is up about 20% this year, putting the EV maker on track for a third straight annual gain. That’s a streak that looks far quieter than the stock’s actual roller-coaster behavior. Investors are eyeing December for a potential Santa Claus rally, the seasonal boost where markets mysteriously drift higher during the final trading days of the year. The stock has risen in more than half of all Decembers since its IPO, giving traders enough historical ammo to justify (or at least speculate with) one more year-end push.
🎅 Seasonal Rally Meets Tesla Volatility
December might bring holiday cheer, but Tesla is no stranger to fireworks: its worst December ever was 2022, when shares cratered 37% amid fears Musk was spending more time tweeting (and buying Twitter) than producing cars. Still, seasonality favors the bulls, and with markets firming up into year-end, traders are wondering if the EV darling will deliver a clean breakout before 2026 arrives. The Santa rally is partly psychology, partly tax positioning — a “why fight it?” setup that tends to reward high-beta names.
🔢 Deliveries Could Be the Real Catalyst
Analysts expect Tesla’s Q4 deliveries to land between 507,000 and 512,000 units, setting the stage for another more than 2 million cars for 2025. That more or less aligns with Musk’s long-term 20–30% growth targets, giving fundamentals a chance to catch up with the stock’s ambitious valuation. Official delivery numbers drop in the first days of January, and for many traders, that will determine whether Tesla starts the next year with a sprint, potentially extending its December performance.
