0:03 spk_0
Stocks closed the week higher with the S&P 500 notching a four day win streak here. Now our finance is Jared Blickery joins us now with the Train Day takeaways.
0:12 spk_1
Josh, uh, a number of themes have emerged over the last week or so, and one of the things I’ve been watching today is tech and Tesla. So let’s just jump into that. I mean, yesterday it was the small caps. Russell 2000 hit a record high finally for the first time in forever, and today we got some new themes. So tech is back. We saw chip stocks.roaring back, I think the Philly chip index hit a record high today, so there’s your tech trade, but I want to focus on Tesla right now because it is inching closer to its record high, and I’ll just show you a quick 5 year chart. You can see over these last 5 years going back to the pandemic, it’s really frustrated traders. But if you kind of look at the pattern that we have here, it’s almost like a big cup and handle. And then if you zoom in over the last 2 years, you can see a smaller cup and handle developing.Right here. So if Tesla breaks out, that is a long base and as they say, the longer the base, the higher in space. So this could have the potential, potential to rocket higher if we can get above those prior record highs and just kind of maintain that for a few days. So not to get too far ahead of myself, I saw some other interesting things in the market, but I don’t want to jump the gun there.
1:22 spk_0
Don’t jump the gun, Jerry. We’ve got a ways to go here. What about the Dow Transports? I saw him making someheadlines
1:28 spk_1
planes, trains, and games, so.Yeah, uh, the Dow Jones Transport index is up 10 straight days. By the way, so is XLK, the tech sector ETF, but not a lot of people talking about the transport. So let’s take a look at what the transports have been doing recently.Um, here you had this is a two year chart. You had a nice consolidation for several months in 2025. Here’s the start of 2025 right here. So this was a nice long period of time and now it has broken out and now it’s going higher, not quite at the records that we saw back here in 2024. Yet some of the ETFs that track transports and aren’t directly tied to the Dow transports have already hit record highs. IYT is one of them, so I was tracking that earlier today.But nonetheless, transports are looking good here and that includes a whole plethora of stocks, some of which we talk about, some of which we don’t. So let’s take a look at the 5 day on the Dow Transports components. Uber, the biggest one that was added, I believe, last year, that was up 4.3%. Don’t forget we still have railroads in this in this country, and they’re very important. There’s CXX up 2.7%.Hunt, not a railroad company. That’s up 8%. Old Dominion up almost 15%, and then a company like Expediter, that’s not Expedia, that’s Expediters right there, EXPD that’s up 3%, and the airlines too really roaring back this week. Love that Southwest that’s up almost 9%, American up 8 or 5, and Alaska Airlines 15.8%. Let’s just take a look at the year to date on that.Basically dead money, but it’s interesting to see some of the come behind trades. What a lot of portfolio managers do this time of year, if you’re behind the index, and usually we have when the S&P is up 15-20% the way it is now, you have a bunch of managers who are behind, they will leverage up in some small names and play the catch up trade and try to get above the S&P into the end of the year. So I think that could be one of the things that’s happening right now and.Explains why some of the very smallest names are also doing very well, and a lot of them unprofitable too. It doesn’t mean they’re great companies, but they’re doing well right now. What about commodities? You want to do a check? Yeah, let’s do that too, because BFA was just out with their weekly flow show report, and Hartnett was saying energy and crude oil could be the contrarian trade of 2026. So that’s what I’m saying is that Energy’s 2026 comeback.Let’s take a look at some of the charts here. So first of all, let’s go to the futures and track what crude oil is doing. So we’re looking for CL equals. It was up 1.5% this week, but I’m going to put a longer term view on it. Let’s go to 5 years and you can see here’s the big spike. That was about $130 per barrel. That was the original invasion of Ukraine by Russia, but we’re just camping up by these lows, which is almost the lowest since we’ve seen since 2022.Get some momentum here if you’re able to break out of this trend line, you could see you could see crude oil moving higher and to support that commodities in general tend to do very well when the Fed is cutting, but we’re not in recession and so far we don’t have any red warning flags for recession. So that’s crude oil. Now let me do me do small oil because that’s something that has really caught my attention recently. PSCE, it’s one of my leaders this week, up 5%.And similar to the transports, they just broke out of a trading range, so here we go.Boom, highest that we’ve seen since earlier in the year, and this is small cap energy. XLE has been bumping. That’s large cap energy has been bumping up against multi-year highs. Bottom line, if crude oil can get going a little bit, energy gets going, small energy gets going, I could see this working out in 2026.
5:12 spk_0
Quickly, it’s Friday.Let’s check on crypto.
5:14 spk_1
Yes, yes, let’s do that. My thesis on Bitcoin is that we’re in a short to medium term.Down trends, but we’re still in a secular bowl, hopefully I think for this decade, but 75,000 has been my line in the sand and one of the things I’ve been emphasizing, let me dial this down to a two month chart, is that the selling that we’ve seen has been very technical. So whenever we get a bounce, and I’ll put some candlesticks on here like this latest high right here, that was an exact 50% retracement of I think this level right here.Um, so you have, when you see very technical selling in a big market like Bitcoin, that just means whoever is obeying those technical symbols signals has the edge, and that would be the shorts right now. So until I see some of the technicals favoring the longs and until I see some longs setups really getting played out in this market, I’m not going to turn bullish. All right, thank you, buddy thank you appreciate it.
